2026-27 Cold and Flu Season: How It’s Shaping Up and What It Means for Your Facility

Early reports suggest flu activity is increasing ahead of typical patterns in some areas, while cold viruses are also circulating. The season’s overall severity remains uncertain. Schools, businesses, professional cleaning teams and healthcare facilities can use local illness and absence trends to guide prevention efforts and prepare for disruptions.¹

Image source: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/index.html

Cold and flu season can affect more than individual health. Illness can disrupt classrooms, leave businesses short-staffed and increase demand for healthcare. Our September 2026 blog on cold and flu preparation covers prevention basics. Here, we look at how the season is shaping up and what emerging patterns could mean for daily operations. Early signals can help guide planning, but they cannot tell us exactly how severe the season will be.

What can Southern Hemisphere trends tell us about flu season?

Southern Hemisphere flu seasons can offer early clues, but this year’s experience varied by country. Four of six monitored countries experienced higher flu activity, and New Zealand recorded its worst season in a decade. Australia’s season started about 17 weeks later than the previous year and was roughly half as large. Greater immunity after Australia’s severe 2025 season may help explain that difference. Influenza A(H3N2) subclade K, a specific group of flu viruses, predominated. RSV activity was generally similar to or lower than the previous season; RSV vaccination may be contributing to fewer severe cases and hospitalizations.

The practical takeaway: no single country’s experience can predict what will happen in your community. Follow local illness indicators to understand when your school, business or healthcare facility may need to adjust its plans.

Is influenza activity rising earlier than expected in 2026–27?

Early reports indicate that overall U.S. flu activity remains low but is rising, with some areas five to eight weeks ahead of expected patterns. The highest early levels were observed in western North America. During the past three seasons, U.S. flu activity typically accelerated from late October into early November. This early western activity differs from the usual pattern described in BlueDot’s October 8, 2026 webinar, The Season Ahead: Forecasting Respiratory Health Risks and Operational Impacts, in which flu emerges first in the southeastern United States and moves northward.

The forecast identifies influenza A(H1N1) D.3.1.1 as predominant in much of the Northern Hemisphere, including the United States. People may have less immunity to this strain after last year’s season, which was dominated by a different flu strain, H3N2 subclade K. Early genetic changes also suggest differences from the H1N1 strain in this year’s vaccine. Those differences do not mean vaccination will fail: vaccines can still help reduce infection and serious outcomes, including complications, emergency visits and hospitalization. It is too early to judge the severity of the 2026–27 season.

Why do cold viruses matter for attendance and staffing?

Flu is not the only illness that can disrupt operations. Rhinoviruses and enteroviruses, closely related viruses associated with cold-like illness, are circulating at higher levels than other respiratory viruses and increasing compared with the same time last year. Even mild infections can mean missed classes, staff absences or people attending while sick. Estimates cited in the forecast suggest people miss one to four workdays with influenza-like illness, often more with flu; 25% to 75% of workers report working while sick; and about half of families have a parent who misses work to care for an ill child. Plan for caregiver absences as well as employees’ own illnesses.

Image source: Centers for Disease Control & Prevention: NREVSS Respiratory Dashboard (10/9/2026)

The October 9, 2026 CDC NREVSS snapshot shown here lists the share of reported tests that were positive: rhinovirus/enterovirus, 31% (elevated and increasing); influenza, 3.65% (low but rising); RSV, 0.59%; and SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, 4.08% (declining from the late-summer wave).

What could overlapping respiratory illness waves mean for facilities?

The U.S. late-summer and early-fall COVID-19 wave is beginning to decline, although patterns differ by region. Severe outcomes have generally decreased as immunity has broadened through vaccination and prior infection during ongoing Omicron circulation. Long COVID remains a concern because ongoing symptoms can limit daily activities.

If flu, COVID-19 and RSV increase at the same time, healthcare facilities could face greater demand, especially for pediatric services. Schools and businesses could face several types of illness and more absences at once. Flu activity can rise quickly, so decide in advance which local illness or absence trends will prompt extra staffing or other responses. Do not wait for peak absences to put plans into action.

What should schools, businesses and healthcare teams do with these trends?

1. Connect local trends to action. Monitor community respiratory illness reports alongside student and employee absences to guide further increases in cleaning and disinfection of frequently touched surfaces and additional staffing coverage. In an analysis of six California school districts during the 2024–2025 school year, student illness-related absences peaked about one week after community influenza activity. The findings suggest that monitoring community flu trends may help schools anticipate increased absences and prepare their response. See our study summary, Predicting Student Absence in Schools During Cold and Flu Season.

2. Plan for staffing gaps. Cross-train staff, identify essential tasks and decide when to bring in additional coverage. Healthcare facilities should plan for possible increases in pediatric demand; schools and offices should identify backup coverage before absences rise.

3. Make hand hygiene easy. Encourage regular handwashing with soap and water and make alcohol-based hand sanitizer readily available. Place hand sanitizer at entrances, in classrooms and in other high-traffic areas. In healthcare settings, hand hygiene products should be accessible at the point of care, consistent with the organization’s hand hygiene policy.

4. Review cleaning and disinfection routines. Prioritize frequently touched surfaces such as door handles, desks, counters, shared equipment, breakroom surfaces and restroom surfaces. During cold and flu season, ready-to-use options such as Clorox Disinfecting Wipes and Clorox EcoClean Disinfecting Wipes can help teams maintain cleaning and disinfection of frequently touched surfaces as local illness activity rises. Choose a product appropriate for the surface and setting, and follow all label directions, including the required contact time. Healthcare teams should also follow their facility’s approved product and infection prevention protocols.
    
   Make responsibilities clear. School administrators should connect school nurses, custodial teams and family communications. Business owners and facility managers should align human resources, professional cleaners and backup staffing plans. Healthcare infection preventionists (IPs) should coordinate with environmental services (EVS) leaders, occupational health and clinical operations.

The bottom line: Use local signals to guide your response

How severe this cold and flu season will be remains uncertain, but facilities do not need a perfect forecast to prepare. Watch local illness trends, communicate clearly and keep everyday prevention measures in place. Adjust staffing and cleaning coverage as conditions change to help limit disruption to learning, work and patient care.

Frequently asked questions

Q: Does early flu activity mean the 2026–27 season will be severe?

A: Not necessarily. Early reports describe increases ahead of typical patterns in some areas, but the season’s overall severity remains uncertain. Timing alone does not tell schools, businesses or healthcare facilities how much illness they will experience.

Q: What does rhinovirus/enterovirus test positivity mean?

A: It is the percentage of reported tests that are positive for those viruses. The October 9 snapshot in this article lists 31%. It is a measure of the tested samples, not the percentage of students, employees or the general population who are infected.

Q: Why plan for several respiratory viruses at once?

A: Overlapping illness waves can increase absences and caregiver needs while placing greater demand on healthcare services. Planning for that combined disruption is more useful than preparing for flu alone.

Q: When should facilities strengthen cold and flu prevention efforts?

A: Start before seasonal illness increases by reviewing cleaning and disinfection routines, confirming supplies, reinforcing hand hygiene and preparing backup staffing. Continue monitoring community illness reports and student and employee absences to guide additional cleaning coverage and staffing adjustments. Follow disinfectant label directions, including contact time, and applicable facility protocols.